18/12/2025 12:00

Sala Descubre/Online Teams. Edificio 8E. Acceso J - 4ª Planta | Universitat Politècnica de València. 46022

Abstract: Local governments face mounting challenges in managing land, water, and energy (LWE) resources while simultaneously meeting ambitious climate and biodiversity targets. Existing nexus models often operate at national or global scales, overlooking the critical feedbacks and trade-offs that emerge at municipal and regional levels. Addressing this need, we present a modular system dynamics (SD) framework that integrates land-use dynamics, water balance, energy demand and supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting at local scales. This systemic approach enables the integrated evaluation of alternative sustainability policies across the land, water, energy, and emissions sectors.

The framework allows decision-makers to explore how specific measures, such as large-scale cropland expansion, ambitious reforestation, or widespread deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV), affect not only resource availability and GHG balances but also long-term socio-ecological resilience. By capturing both direct impacts and systemic trade-offs (e.g., increased water demand or land-use competition from renewables), the model supports the design of robust, cross-sectoral strategies.

The framework was implemented and calibrated across six diverse European case studies, including island and mainland regions, utilizing high-resolution spatial data, historical statistics, and expert validation. Validation combined structural consistency tests, extreme-condition analysis, and comparison with observed trends, achieving close agreement for key variables such as cropland areas and water demand. 

Policy simulations yielded crucial findings for both mitigation and adaptation. For instance, in semi-arid regions, the simulation demonstrated that water scarcity acts as a strict constraint on the expansion of irrigated agriculture. However, the adoption of policies promoting non-conventional water sources (reuse/desalination) significantly boosted resilience to drought (adaptation) but, in turn, increased local energy requirements. This forced the necessity of synergies with mitigation policies, such as decentralized PV deployment, to maintain the net GHG emission reduction target. 

By embedding high-resolution spatial data and a participatory co-design process into a dynamic simulation platform, the model successfully bridges methodological advancements in system dynamics modeling with the practical needs of subnational decision-making. It provides a reproducible, open-source tool for scenario exploration, offering policymakers clear insights into the synergies and conflicts of LWE strategies and supporting robust local climate adaptation and mitigation planning.

Bio: Dr. Tommaso Brazzini, with a background in applied physics, is currently Senior Researcher in the Group of Energy, Economy and System Dynamics (GEEDS) at the University of Valladolid. His work focuses on sustainability science, socio-ecological transitions, and systems thinking, applying system dynamics and integrated assessment models in several EU-funded projects on climate change adaptation and mitigation. Past experience includes research in applied physics and materials science, Transition Town projects, and the creation of a database of tools for resilience and ecological transformation. He teaches permaculture and sustainability in university courses, has coauthored 20+ scientific articles, and presented at 25+ international conferences.

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